Physician Projection Models: Why the Differences and Why Does It Matter?

Product type: presentation at AAMC Health Workforce Research Conference, Tysons Corner, VA., May 10, 2018

Presenters: Fraher E, Knapton, A, Kandrack, R, Holmes, M.


  • The physician shortage narrative persists. It causes us to ask, and answer, what I think is the wrong question
  • We developed different modeling approach to identify types of health care visits in shortage in different geographies. People still asked how many physicians we will need
  • When we answered this question, our model yielded similar, but somewhat different, results
  • The results of workforce models have potential to shape future health care system