Physician Projection Models: Why the Differences and Why Does It Matter?

Product type: presentation at AAMC Health Workforce Research Conference, Tysons Corner, VA., May 10, 2018 Presenters: Fraher E, Knapton, A, Kandrack, R, Holmes, M. Overview:  The physician shortage narrative persists. It causes us to ask, and answer, what I think is the wrong question We developed different modeling approach to identify types of health care… Read more »

The Sticky Wicket of Projecting Physician Workforce Needs

Author: Erin P. Fraher, PhD, MPP Presentation to the National Health Policy Forum March 4, 2016   Presentation Overview: The lure of the shortage rhetoric Why don’t workforce models agree? Case study: our workforce projection model Using models as tools to simulate policy change, rather than the “answer” Understand effect of overlapping/shifting roles on workforce… Read more »

A New Open-Source, Dynamic Model for Projecting Physician Supply and Demand

Model Overview With a grant from the Physicians Foundation, the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research (Sheps Center) is developing a dynamic, open-source, web-based tool to project physician supply and demand and estimates of shortages in the United States. The model will be intuitive, easy to use, customizable, and freely available to all… Read more »

Education Models to Cultivate the Rural Health Workforce

Health system is transforming; existing workers take on new roles There are imbalances in the geographic location, specialty and practice settings of health professionals New and existing workforce will shift from acute to ambulatory,community- and home-based settings Career ladders missing, have broken rungs  

How Physicians Change Clinical Focus During the Course of Their Career

Toward developing a better understanding of how physicians change clinical focus during the course of their career April 25, 2014: American Board of Medical Specialties National Health Policy Forum The context: Rapid health system change underway. Much debate has centered on: numbers of physicians needed, not content of practice redesigning curriculum for students in pipeline… Read more »

Health Workforce Supply in North Carolina

Future Trends, Opportunities and Challenges December 16, 2013: NC Legislative Review Committee on Health Care Provider Practice Sustainability and Training/Additional Transparency Presentation overview The context Current challenges The health workforce of the future What do we need to do now to prepare for health workforce needed in the future?  

Model of Physician Supply and Healthcare Utilization

AAMC Physician Workforce Research Conference May 3, 2012 | Washington, DC Developing an open source simulation model of physician supply and healthcare utilization. Project Goals (briefly) Overview of current model Outline key questions Solicit feedback Discussion    

Health Workforce Modeling

Health Workforce Modeling: Past, Present and Future Challenges and Opportunities May 3, 2013: AAMC Physician Workforce Research Conference A sandbox approach to this presentation Limitations of past models Overview of our physician projection model Challenges Geography Utilization Supply Plasticity Accounting for error Dynamism and relevance User interface